https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5944611/
Chinese population is known as having one of the largest number of population and accounts for about 19% of the total world population, which is about 1.4 billion people. As the number of people are increasing, there is a way for population growth reduction in China known as “One-Child Policy, which restrict Chinese to have one child. This article, “The effects of China’s universal two-child policy,” written by Yi Zeng and Therese Hesketh on October 15, 2016, talks about the effects of one-child policy. First, the one-child policy had been enacted in 1979 because “between 1950 and 1970, the population had increased from 540 million to more than 800 million” (Zeng, 2016). Thanks to this policy, the total fertility rate fell down from 5.9 births per woman in 1970 to 2.9 births per woman by 1979, although the fear of overpopulation persisted. However, this policy was strictly enforced for urban residents who occupied about 20 % of the population but rural areas. For those people living in rural area, the policy was not popular or enforceable, thus some people living in rural areas were allowed to have a second child if their child was a girl. This is technically known as “1.5 child policy.” “These variation created a substantial difference in total fertility rate between rural and urban regions” (Zeng, 2016). However, all in all the effect of the one-child policy was that 400 million births have been prevented, that contributed to increasing per capita GDP.
This one-child policy seems like one of the good ways to persuade people to not increase population, but in 2015 the policy was abolished because Chinese government worried about accelerating population aging and decline in the working-age population (Zeng, 2016). Instead, it was replaced to universal two-child policy following the year, that no one in China, even in urban area, is restricted to having just one child. Surprisingly, it is not like every Chinese want two or more children even though the one-child policy was deregulated. But, it is because most Chinese prefer to channel all of their resources into just one child; they also want their children to move up the social ladder, or at least not get stuck. A survey found out that “two-thirds of women state a preference for only one child” (Zeng, 2016). Also, those Chinese seem to not want to spend much money for their children, especially for education, and take the time for their children instead of working.
Furthermore, it is said that “the universal two-child policy is predicted to lead to a peak population of around 1.45 billion in 2029 and then gradually decline” (Zeng, 2016), while one-child policy expects to lead to a peak at around 1.40 billion in 2023 and rapidly decline.
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